The shares of successful enterprises are growing in value.
Alexey Naumenko, AKM agency
The year 1999, many Russian car factories successfully completed - production has grown, the financial situation has improved. But the stock index * of engineering enterprises grew by only 66.5%, while the stock index of oil companies increased by more than three times, and industrial enterprises - by 226%. So, despite the visible successes in production, there is stagnation in the stock market of engineering. Although this stagnation, according to stock market analysts, does not reflect reality at all. Engineering stocks actually cost significantly more than they are valued today. If after the presidential election the economic policy in the country does not change, the shares of machine-building enterprises may become the most promising for investment. However, each Russian car factory has its own characteristics. Let's talk about them.
AvtoVAZ. In the coming years, the shareholders of the "monopolist" are unlikely to wait for dividends. In its entire history AvtoVAZ has never paid them! The plant is still forced to cover old debts to the state budget. In addition, considerable funds are needed for the technical re-equipment and updating of the Togliatti lineup - they will be taken primarily from profit.
At the same time, the plant is developing dynamically: in 1999 it produced 14.8% more cars than in 1998, and the forecast for 2000 is also good. In addition, VAZ is increasingly vigorously promoting its products on the markets of the CIS, Asia, Latin America. This is one of the reasons for the growth of AvtoVAZ shares - from 14.4 rubles. at the beginning of 1999 up to 41 rubles. at the end, that is 185%. This is significantly higher than the growth of the mechanical engineering stock index as a whole.
GAZ is the only automobile plant whose shares belong to the category of so-called "blue chips", that is, the most stable and liquid ones. The market success of the new models (Gazelle, Sobol, Barguzin), stable financial condition, honest, open policy towards shareholders - all this contributes to the attractiveness of GAZ shares.
Automobile production in 1999 at GAZ grew by 7.7%, in May it is planned to begin assembly line assembly of the new Volga. The main thing is that in the near future GAZ does not need, unlike AvtoVAZ, to invest huge amounts of money in the development of production (these funds are mainly already invested). During 1999, the market value of an ordinary share in GAZ increased from 409.59 rubles. up to 830.25 rubles, preferred - from 87.86 rubles. up to 208.575 rubles. Unlike VAZ, GAZ regularly pays dividends on its shares. For example, in 1997 and 1998, dividends were accrued in the amount of 3 rubles. for ordinary and 12 rubles. per preferred share with par value of 1 rub. GAZ will almost certainly pay dividends for 1999 as well.
KamAZ. Last year, things began to improve here: the company resumed serial production of trucks and approached the breakeven point. However, a heavy debt burden still prevails over the plant and management has not yet been able to fully restore production volumes. It seems that at present, the Kama giant exists primarily due to the growth in the production of Oka minicars.
KamAZ has not previously paid dividends and is unlikely to pay in the coming years. Most analysts are skeptical of investing in KamAZ shares. During 1999, their price fell from 3.55 rubles. up to 1.77 rubles.
ZIL. The Moscow government, which owns almost 60% of the plant’s shares, is trying to put the plant on its feet. Judging by the growing volumes of production (in 1999, automotive vehicles produced 4% more than in 1998), this was almost possible. Nevertheless, the price of ZIL shares fell from 60 rubles during the year. at the beginning of 1999 up to 30 rubles. at the end of the year. About dividends on shares in the near future is not talking. Therefore, paper companies may be of certain interest only to those investors who are able to invest for a long time and are willing to take risks.
UAZ. Traditionally, a financially stable company annually increases car production: UAZ cars are always in demand. In 1998, the company did not pay dividends, in 1997, per share with a par value of 1 thousand rubles. 19.44 rubles were paid. dividends. Perhaps the plant will pay them this year. UAZ shares behave stably; over the past year they have slightly grown in price - from 0.347 rubles. up to 0.378. In 2000, the company intends to increase production volumes - which means that its shares may still grow.
Moskvich. If the company does not undergo a complete change of management, as well as production, financial and economic policies, there can be no talk of the attractiveness of the plant's shares. At present, the company's shares do not represent absolutely no interest in the market, and, judging by the financial situation of the plant, in the near future the securities of this company will not go on the market.
"Pavlovsky bus." Russia's largest bus manufacturer is doing well. But still he prefers not to spend his profit on dividends, but to invest in production. For the same reason, during 1999, the company's shares fell in price from 154.45 rubles. up to 92.7 rub.
Among other Russian automotive companies that may be of interest to potential small investors in the near future are Kurgan Bus, which last year managed to significantly improve its financial situation, the supplier of engines for GAZ - Zavolzhsky Motor Plant and UralAZ.
* The arithmetic average of changes in the value of shares of the largest automotive companies in Russia.
Company Cost, USD
GAZ 156 029 383
KamAZ 69 003 753
AvtoVAZ 40 678 816
Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant 17 508 888
Pavlovsky bus 5 513 796