Anonim

ON PRICES

TO RISE, TO LANDING

We analyze the dynamics of selling prices of VAZ and GAZ.

Anton CHUYKIN

Recall: the last period of relative price calm - the fall of 1999, when the summer hibernation of demand gave way to a slight seasonal awakening … For the most part, prices reacted rather sluggishly: they turned to the other side and continued to snore. And suddenly from the beginning of winter - rise, as if on alarm! For several months - an increase of up to 20% on the VAZ model and, it is scary to imagine - up to 40% on the Volga! Already the demand, chasing prices, surrendered and retreated - in accordance with the season, and the schedules still resemble the temperature chart of the pre-crisis patient.

Curious, is it possible to predict what will happen to prices next? Or at least understand when to expect their next change - maybe we can find a connection with the weather, the dollar, demand, finally?

As for the weather - it is doubtful. Rather, demand depends on it, which is subject to spring and, to a lesser extent, autumn rise. Trading is reviving before the holidays - some allow themselves gifts on four wheels … But the price is noticeably behind demand. And there are reasons for this. Say, a significant part of VAZ cars is shipped to trade on the principle of “in the morning - money, in the evening - chairs”, that is, prepaid. The trading organization pays for the cars and … waits, sometimes up to 60 days (this is the delivery time)! Having received the money in advance and having almost two months left in stock, the plant can afford not to quickly monitor what is happening on the market … As a result, it is an untimely, very late response to the revival of demand.

But this is only one reason for the spring jump in selling prices. Significantly more significant was the rise in price of components. Recall: for one and a half post-crisis years, VAZ raised selling prices by 78%, while petroleum products, metal, tires rose 170-200% during the same time (for more details see ЗР, 2000, No. 5). Having realized it, the factories pursued the allies. So, the jump in car prices is still the impact of the crisis … God forbid, the last. Due to the slowness of the auto giants, the growth came out so rapid - the thunder struck, the man waited and … crossed himself sweepingly.

By the way, analyzing the numbers, you involuntarily pay attention to a certain oddity. For example, the dynamics of selling prices for VAZ 2107: 66 356, 69 356, 71 856, 75 056, 78 056 rubles. Why have such non-circular values ​​grown since last November by an even 3000, 2500, 3200 rubles? For ease of calculation or for other reasons?

However, there was a time - and prices were reduced! For example, on the Volga with the 406th engine - they lifted it in November and lowered it in December, obviously, for fear of scaring off buyers of the still new model. However, in April I had to start an escalation of prices - perhaps paying for last year's decline …

About the same can be said about Togliatti. For example, a novelty - the VAZ 2111 station wagon, having put on the conveyor, managed to be made cheaper. Alas, now, after spring price hops, this is the most expensive of serial VAZs. An example shows the model 21103 - a 16-valve engine is untwisted, keeping a relatively stable price. Will this attempt at a competent marketing policy succeed or will this model rapidly rise in price? Will show the near future.